Alberto Contador- This is how he gets beaten

We are now in full count down mode to the 2010 Tour de France and if you've been listening to the experts you might think that the battle for the top spot of the podium is a done deal. Alberto Contador, without a doubt, has been head and shoulders above his competition so far this year. He has won time trials, been a top three finisher in a classic as well as winning a mountain stage in the Dauphiné. However, let's not award the winner's bouquet quite yet to the Spanish rider.

His first obvious weakness is the Astana squad. While they are not completely inadequate and have shown some strength earlier in the season, can the boys in blue and gold really be expected to provide support during that last brutal week in the mountains? Doubtful.

Let's paint a real scenario - it's the mountains and the usual suspects are leading on the climb: the Schlecks with Saxo teammate Jakob Fuglsang (third overall in Tour de Suisse); the four men of the RadioShack Apocalypse - Armstrong (I'm starting to believe after watching his Tour de Suisse performance), Kloden, Brajkovic, and Leipheimer; and Sammy Sanchez along with Christian Vande Velde both waiting in the wings to throw a wrench into anyone's plan. Because I'm in a good mood Bradley Wiggins and the money train that is Team Sky will be there as well. Team HTC-Columbia has Michael Rogers in the mix, but realistically he'll be happy to be in such a select group. Of course there will be others as well, but you get the point. With a combined force of teams attacking and then counter attacking how much can he take before he cracks? And if a rider gets up the road everyone will look at Contador to chase. How often can he do that? Perhaps he will have teammate Vinokourov helping him, but looking at his past history the Kazakh isn't really a team player.

The other contenders have strong directors at their side: the Schlecks with Bjarne Riis, Vande Velde with Vaughters, and of course Bruyneel with RadioShack. Not much is mentioned about Astana's director - Yvon Sanquer. Does he have the ability to keep Contador reined in or keep him calm when the attacks start flying? Contador, while having an impressive Grand Tour record, doesn't have the years of trench warfare experience. A moment of panic or a poorly mad decision in the heat of battle can ruin his chances. As past history has shown Contador has made some impulsive moves, but luckily he's had a team to back him up. Not so much this year.

But before we get to the mountains Contador has to survive the first week which includes cobbles. Remember Iban Mayo? This pure climber was a threat for the Tour de France podium in 2004. However he crashed out of contention on the stones of Roubaix, losing almost four minutes in the first week. His chances of victory were gone before the Tour hit his favorite terrain.

And like Mayo, Contador lives for the mountains but an unfortunate crash without team support and he could lose buckets of time. He also doesn't necessarily need to crash. If he's stuck behind an incident and then can't get through the clogged, narrow roads it could be disastrous. How would this affect this young man's psyche if he comes out of those stages a couple of minutes back. He's untested in this situation. Does he have the maturity to put that behind him? Does he have the managerial leadership in his earpiece of a Johan Bruyneel keeping him reined in?

El Pistolero was a favorite for the upcoming Spanish time trial championships. However a flu prevented him from lining up. While not devastating, it takes away another opportunity to see how he is measuring up against the competition. Also, in the recent Dauphiné he was complaining about his allergies. This could be a real factor when the pace speeds up and he can't respond on all cylinders. He'll need to have that V-6 of his firing in order to repel the attacks coming his way.

While Alberto Contador is the odds on favorite don't think he can't be beaten. A bit of misfortune on the roads of Belgium, a moment of hesitation in the mountains or even worse, being beaten down by multiple attacks and his podium chances are done. Can he physically and mentally survive the pressure cooker that is the Tour de France? In a little over a week we'll see.