This is how Armstrong can win the Tour de France

With six days of racing behind us Lance Armstrong has found himself in a position he's never been in before since his winning streak at the Tour started in 1999 - behind the eight-ball with options to advance toward the top of the general classification running out.


In pre-race sound bites Armstrong has acknowledged the physical superiority of Contador but the telling comment left out was being equally complimentary to the Astana team.


"I would say we definitely have a team for the mountains," said team lieutenant Levi Leipheimer. With their Tour de France squad roster there's really not a lot of room for argument. From Tour de France first-timer Jani Brajkovic who showed his worth at the Critérium du Dauphiné, to Swiss rider Grégory Rast who can pull at the front for kilometer after kilometer, Leipheimer has hit the nail on the head. So with the flat stages in the rear view mirror what's the next move for RadioShack?


In this case it's the last week of the Tour where RadioShack leader Lance Armstrong can hope to take the win. Packed with mountain stages and a final time trial, it will either offer an opportunity for redemption or the coup de grâce for the trailing riders. It is in this final week he must attack.


To win this Tour de France, Armstrong is going to have to pull from Sun Tzu's The Art of War.


Knowing the ground is the path of survival and destruction

Today's stage 7, while not a true mountain stage, will start to sort out the G.C. Unfortunately it won't do enough damage to put the true contenders on the ropes, just eliminate some of the riders in front of him on GC.


Skillful warriors first made themselves invincible, and then watched for vulnerability in their opponents

Sunday is the day when RadioShack is going to have to make their first real stab at Contador if they have hopes winning. The one chink in the Contador armor is his Astana squad. While not stacked with newbies it doesn't have the depth that either The Shack or Saxo Bank does in the mountains.


The Col de la Ramaz, the Tour's first category 1 climb is a 14.3 kilometer haul at an average gradient of 6.8% and could be the place to start hammering at Contador. Tag team the Astana team with the Saxo Bank boys and start throwing the softening punches on this climb. Then follow it up with a real attack on the final climb where the finish line is perched - the Mozine Avoriaz. If things go right the Astana leader is now isolated, worn down by numerous attacks and loses (best case scenario) some time. While the time gaps may be small the psychological gains are huge. Contador would go into Monday's rest day wondering what the hell happened and questioning the value of his troops.


In battle confrontation is done directly - victory is gained by surprise

Monday is a rest day, however the action picks up again on Tuesday with stage 9. This day's stage includes two, category 1 climbs and a ‘hor category' climb - the Col de la Madeleine. Again, they need to chip away at Contador and continue to wear him down with attack after attack. BMC's Cadel Evans could be the joker in this game. The Australian just needs to bide his time and wait for the moment to strike. As a real contender, Contador can't let him go. Shack can sit back on their heels and force him to react, burning another match in the process. When the riders leave the Alps, Armstrong needs to either be nipping at the heels of the leader or securely in the lead.

Good warriors cause others to come to them and do not go to others

The Pyrenees is the next battle ground and at this point Armstrong needs to be in a position of power. Pressure needs to be applied by a strong squad and in this situation it needs to be RadioShack - at the front setting the tempo and letting everyone know who is really in charge. Contador and just as importantly the Astana team need to feel like a gazelle being slowly squeezed and then eaten by a boa constrictor. The death blow needs to be applied because at this point, Contador has proven to be the faster man in the time trials, so the time gaps that can be lost in the race of truth need to be minimized.


Outnumber your opponent ten to one, then surround them five to one, attack; two to one, divide.

To beat Contador it will not be one masterful attack that drops him like a hot rock to the bottom of the general classification. It will be attack after attack in the mountain ranges, slowly wearing him down until he is no longer able to respond. This is needs to be done with a well oiled squad such as RadioShack or in collaboration with another with something to gain, such as Saxo Bank and Rabobank.

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